What implications does the outcome of the German federal elections have for Europe? Will the new governement coalition that Merkel’s conservative CDU is to form with the liberal FDP (liberal both in terms of economy and civil rights) change Europe’s face?

Politically, Germany will more or less stay the same. A large Member State with a somewhat disproportionate self-perception, not realising how much other states look at what Europe’s major economy and most populated member will do. In believa that Merkel will continue its fainthearted strategy. After the German Presidency, she basically disappeared from the EU’s political scene.

Economically the new government is likely to less protectionist than the outgoing one (even if the state aid for Opel might be granted), given that the social-democrats have to quit. But one still shouldn’t forget the last months have shown that even among Merkel’s troups, a lot of people call for protectionism in troubled times. All in all, the new government will be more present at EU level, supporting the liberal stance of the European Commission.

Finally, ecology may be the field where there could be fundamental changes. The new government not only wants to prolong the time foreseen to phase out all nuclear power plants (the 1999 decision stipulates a 2020 deadline) but, it also considers using nuclear sources for still a long time to come – even though Merkel and her designated ministers don’t fully admit that yet. But earlier political statements, secret studies leaked to the press and the 5% increase in the price of the shares of Germany’s big energy suppliers give a clear indication of what will happen. This may however not cause a lot of trouble at EU level, since many Member States still or again rely on nuclear energy. Nonetheless, the German government will have to confront the vast majority of Germans who are against nuclear power plants – and will ask the same old question that still remain unanswered: How to guarantee safety? What to do with the nuclear waste? When will we switch to sustainable sources?

All in all, there is in my eyes no big potential for clashes at EU level. The second Merkel government cannot be believed to make fundamental changes, except for environmental policy. The first test will be the Copenhagen summit in December: The new elected leaders have already promised to fight for Germany’s industry – and a bit less for environmental issues. Germany will thus not be a progressive force in the next 4 years. Time to push it a bit at EU level!

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